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Large outdoor companies are losing retail sales in China, and their manufacturing status is unclear. Meanwhile, smaller manufacturers say their production is at a standstill

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Coronavirus Is Impacting the Outdoor Industry Supply Chain

A little less than a month after outdoor companies with Chinese supply chains got some relief from a preliminary trade deal, they鈥檙e now reeling from work stoppages caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

Large outdoor apparel companies VF Corp. and Columbia Sportswear are losing sales at retail stores that have been temporarily closed in China, where travel has been sharply curtailed to help stem the spread of the virus. But they aren鈥檛 saying much about the potential effect on their supply chains, which include manufacturing operations in China. Meanwhile, smaller companies told 国产吃瓜黑料 Business Journal their production remains halted even after the conclusion of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which was extended because of the outbreak.

Printing, embroidery, and sewing operations remain closed at the factory near Shanghai that produces hats for Boco Gear, a Colorado-based custom headwear maker, the owner of the factory, Geng Gaotun, tells 国产吃瓜黑料 Business Journal.

鈥淭his is the longest holiday I have had but the worst,鈥 Geng told OBJ via email from Las Vegas, Nevada, where he was stranded as many flights into China were cancelled.

His factory still has orders its needs to ship this month, but Geng isn鈥檛 sure if it will be able to fulfill them. Local printing workers may not be able to return until February 25, and the factory may not be able to resume embroidery and sewing operations until the end of the month. Meanwhile, a separate factory that makes beanies for Boco remains closed, with that owner hoping it could re-open February 20, Boco CEO Kay Martin tells OBJ.

To help deal with February orders it couldn鈥檛 push back to March, Boco, which has a relatively agile manufacturing footprint because of its quick turnaround business model, sent some orders to Vietnam for production. But there鈥檚 not enough manufacturing capacity there to fulfill all the orders Boco is expecting to book for March, which is traditionally a busy time for the company.

鈥淚f this stretches beyond March, we鈥檒l lose orders,鈥 Martin said.

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In this photo from 2019,聽Geng Gaotun (at right with hat) stands with his team in front of his factory near Shanghai, which has been temporarily closed because of the coronavirus. As of Wednesday afternoon, none of his employees was sick with the virus. Some of his employees can work remotely from home, but printing, embroidery, and sewing operations are halted.聽Geng says he plans to pay full wages to all his employees, even if some are out all of February. (Photo: Courtesy)

Outdoor industry heavyweights are also grappling with the fallout from the outbreak.

VF Corp., which owns , said in a statement last week that it鈥檚 too early to gauge the impact of the virus on its supply chain in mainland China, where approximately 16 percent of its cost of goods sold is sourced directly.

The company is also facing a near-term hit to its sales as around 60 percent of the company鈥檚 owned and partner retail stores in China have been temporarily closed. Stores that have remained open are seeing significant declines in foot traffic. During the 2019 fiscal year, mainland China represented 6 percent of total VF Corp. revenue.

Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle said on a conference call that the virus is 鈥渉aving an immediate impact on our business in China, including the effects of store closures and lower store traffic at stores that remain open.鈥

He said it was too early to forecast the financial impact on Columbia鈥檚 business, including on its sourcing, production, and supply chain. Chief operating officer Tom Cusick added that Columbia鈥檚 spring 2020 production is largely completed, but orders are in process for the fall line, which is where most of the coronavirus’s threat to the company’s business lies.

Meanwhile, CEO Dani Reiss said on a conference call that the company expects it will be able to offset any supply chain impact in the long term with buffer inventory built up over the last year.

As for Canada Goose鈥檚 retail operations, revenue in China is at 鈥渘egligible鈥 levels across its entire store network, including its most significant online markets, Jonathan Sinclair, the company鈥檚 chief financial officer, said on the call. The impact has also been spreading to major shopping destinations in North America and Europe, and Canada Goose has lowered its annual revenue growth guidance to 13.8-15 percent when it had been expecting average annual revenue growth of at least 20 percent.

While Canada Goose produces clothing in Canada, it sources raw materials from suppliers in China, and a prolonged disruption could affect its ability to do that, the company said in a regulatory filing.

For outdoor industry companies, the chances of shipment delays increase the longer disruptions from the outbreak go on, two industry analysts tell 国产吃瓜黑料 Business Journal.

Supply chain delays that stretch into March could start to affect shipments for the back-to-school season, said Wedbush Securities analyst Chris Svezia, who produces research notes for investors about publicly traded footwear and apparel companies including VF Corp. and Columbia.

And once shipments resume, there could be bottlenecks at ports trying to get them out, potentially forcing companies to use more expensive air freight services out of China, said Stifel Financial Corp. analyst Jim Duffy, who also covers Columbia and VF Corp. among other sports and lifestyle companies.

Management at Swedish glove maker Hestra is considering moving as much production as it can out of China and into Hungary and Vietnam if the coronavirus timeline drags on, Dino Dardano, president of Hestra USA, told 国产吃瓜黑料 Business Journal. The company has been planning to move its manufacturing out of China anyway because of difficulty finding labor as well the U.S.-China tariff situation, but it would accelerate those plans if the coronavirus outbreak lingers.

Hestra鈥檚 two jointly owned Chinese factories in Shanghai and Guangzhou are shuttered at least until February 17, Dardano noted.

鈥淥ur fear is that it鈥檚 going to continue for weeks, if not months,鈥 Dardano said, echoing concerns from the outdoor industry about the outbreak鈥檚 duration, a key factor in determining the extent of the impact on companies鈥 sales and manufacturing.

Although outdoor apparel companies are facing lost retail sales and an uncertain production outlook because of the new coronavirus outbreak, the industry as a whole is less vulnerable than it was when a similar epidemic occurred nearly two decades ago.

In general, outdoor apparel makers are less reliant on Chinese production now than they were during the 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.

Many companies in search of cheaper labor have diversified their manufacturing to places like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Ecuador. Also, China鈥檚 decades-long one-child policy has made the Asian nation less attractive for clothing manufacturers because there aren鈥檛 enough younger workers to replace aging retirees. Recently, the trade war between the United States and China accelerated the process of companies reducing their Chinese production footprint.

Swedish glove maker Hestra already had plans to eventually exit manufacturing in China entirely because of the labor issue, said Dino Dardano, president of Hestra USA. But it accelerated its move into Hungary and Vietnam because of the recent tariff turmoil. This year, it was planning to make about 80 percent to 85 percent of products outside China, even before the coronavirus outbreak.

Another key difference between now and the early 2000s for the outdoor apparel industry is the ubiquity of e-commerce. But its offsetting effect on lost brick-and-mortar sales is a mixed picture in China at the moment.

While Nike said in a recent press release that its digital commerce business in China was showing 鈥渃ontinued strength,鈥 Canada Goose鈥檚 chief financial officer Jonathan Sinclair said on a conference call that revenue from the outerwear maker鈥檚 most significant online markets in the nation was 鈥渘egligible.鈥

Although e-commerce sales have the potential to mitigate some of the losses from traditional stores, there is still the question of how orders get delivered, noted Mitch Kummetz, an analyst with Pivotal Research Group who covers footwear and apparel companies.

鈥淭ravel restrictions have essentially cut-off all traffic from mainland China, and local activity is almost at a standstill,鈥 Sinclair said on the Canada Goose call. 鈥淪ARS unfortunately, it’s still fresh in many memories.鈥

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An Investor鈥檚 Guide to the Outdoors /business-journal/brands/investors-stock-market-guide-to-the-outdoors/ Thu, 21 Jun 2018 04:40:55 +0000 /?p=2571586 An Investor鈥檚 Guide to the Outdoors

Put your money where your heart is. If you like to play the stock market, and you believe in the economic strength of the outdoor industry, why not invest in one of these publicly traded outdoor companies?

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An Investor鈥檚 Guide to the Outdoors

How good of an investment is the outdoor and recreation industry on Wall Street?

An 国产吃瓜黑料 Business Journal analysis shows the sector has outpaced broader market indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average with healthy gains during the past five years, albeit still lagging behind the soaring tech industry.

OBJ compiled an index of 18 global outdoor recreation companies that trade on global exchanges (see chart), then averaged their performance over the past five years (from June 19, 2013 through June 19, 2018) to come up with our Outdoor Index. The results show a 82 percent gain for the sector, beating the S&P 500’s 65 percent gain and the DJIA’s 61 percent gain, during the same period.

In money terms, if you invested $1,000 in each of our 18 Outdoor Index stocks for a total of $18,000 five years ago, you could cash out those investments for $32,698 today鈥攁 gain of $14,698. This doesn’t include any dividends paid out by the stocks, which would increase those gains by varying degrees.

By the Numbers

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(Photo: Courtesy)

Camping World Holdings (Camping World, Uncle Dan’s)

Camping World Holdings stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Camping World Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CWH) went public in October 2016 and acquired Uncle Dan’s, Erehwon Mountain, and Rock Creek to boost its outdoor specialty retail business. Still, retail has been a challenge and the stock is up only 2.9 percent since its inception.

Clarus Corp. (Black Diamond)

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(Chart: David Clucas)

Clarus Corp. (NASDAQ: CLAR), parent to Black Diamond, has had a rough go of it in the past five years, falling 18.9 percent amid its acquisitions then disposal of Gregory Mountain and Poc Sports, and departure of its CEO and BD founder Peter Metcalf.

VF Corp. (TNF, Timberland, etc.)

VF Corp. stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

VF Corp. (NYSE:VFC) grew its business to largely depend on outdoor sales with brands like The North Face, Timberland, Jansport, and Smartwool in its portfolio. Its stock is up 75.1 percent in the past five years.

Columbia Sportswear Co. (Columbia, Mountain Hardwear, prAna)

Columbia stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Columbia Sportswear Co. (NASDAQ: COLM) saw its stock soar 199.7 percent thanks to its prAna acquisition, boosting its lifestyle business, while simultaneously benefiting from Columbia’s advances in apparel innovation during the past five years. A few bumpy years at its Mountain Hardwear brand was the only thing holding it back from even larger gains.

Newell Brands Inc. (Marmot, Coleman, etc.)

Newell stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Newell Brands Inc. (NYSE:NWL) merged with Jarden Corp., parent to Marmot and Coleman, to become a $13 billion diversified conglomerate, but so far, that hasn’t helped its stock price, which has lagged behind the rest of the market, falling 2.7 percent in the past five years.

Amer Sports (Salomon, Arc’Teryx, Atomic, Suunto, etc.)

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Amer Sports (HEL:AMEAS) has seen steady gains after a few rough winters. Key to its success鈥攖he stock is up 94.8 percent in five years鈥攈as been lifestyle push at Arc’teryx and Salomon, balancing the core side of the business.

Canada Goose Holdings Inc.

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (NYSE: GOOS) has been riding high on the fashion front. Its iconic look is in style with consumers and the stock is up 274.4 percent since going public in March 2017.

Under Armour Inc.

Under Armour Inc. stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UAA) has come off its recent highs after previous lofty outlooks on growth didn’t come through, including within the outdoor industry. That’s kept its stock price in check, lagging behind its biggest competitors Nike and Adidas.

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (Teva, Hoka One One, etc.)

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (Teva, Hoka, etc.)
(Chart: David Clucas)

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK), parent to Teva and Hoka One One, has benefited from the athleisure trend in footwear. Meanwhile, trade deals and technology advances have cut the cost of footwear manufacturing, boosting its bottom lines.

GoPro Inc.

GoPro Inc. stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

GoPro Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) was a high-flying stock when it debuted in June 2014, but since then, more consumers are opting to capture video on their phones versus a separate camera. That’s hurt sales and the stock has plummeted 78.1 percent to date.

Vista Outdoor Inc. (CamelBak, Camp Chef, etc.)

Vista Outdoor Inc. (CamelBak, Camp Chef, etc.)
(Chart: David Clucas)

Vista Outdoor Inc. (NYSE: VSTO) went public in February 2015 and then went on an outdoor acquisition spree to try diversify from its firearms business. It now owns CamelBak and Camp Chef, among others, but the diversification hasn’t made up for the drop in firearm sales post years of political gun-control debates. Its stock is down 55.3 percent over the past five years.

Garmin Ltd.

Garmin Ltd.
(Chart: David Clucas)

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) turned in perhaps the biggest surprise performance over the past five years. Despite the continuing declines of its auto GPS sales, the company saw a big boost from its fitness-and-outdoor tracking technologies, leading to a gain on Wall Street of 70.1 percent.

Fenix Outdoor International AG (Fjallraven, Brunton, Hanwag, etc.)

Fenix Outdoor International AG (Fjallraven, Brunton, Hanwag, etc.) stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Fenix Outdoor International AG (STO: FOI-B) made the right choice expanding its brands, including Fjallraven, Brunton, and Hanwag, to the North American retail scene. They were a big hit and the stock is up 198.9 percent, despite more challenging markets in Europe.

Johnson Outdoors Inc. (Eureka, JetBoil, etc.)

Johnson Outdoors Inc. (Eureka, JetBoil, etc.) stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Johnson Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ: JOUT) has had a solid business plan for its JetBoil acquisition, while maintaining Eureka as a top brand in the mass channels. Plus, the rise of SUPs and other paddlecraft has helped its watersports channels, all propelling the stock up 221.5 percent in the past five years.

Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (Chaco, Merrell, etc.)

Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (Chaco, Merrell, etc.) stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (NYSE:WWW), parent to Chaco, Merrell, and its namesake brand, hasn’t done much to excite Wall Street in the past five years, and while its stock is up 39.6 percent during the period, that gain has lagged the broader averages.

Thule Group AB

Thule Group AB stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Thule Group AB (STO:THULE), has seen continued success from its vehicle rack business, while expanding into vehicle-top shelters and packs鈥攁 good fit for always-on-the-move millennials. Its stock price is up 174 percent since debuting on the public exchanges in November 2014.

Dicks Sporting Goods Inc.

Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS), like many other big-box retailers, has struggled in the face of increased online sales at Amazon on one end and specialty-retail competition on the other. However, despite its 30.2 percent decline in stock value over the past five years, it remains a survivor after competitors such as Sports Authority and Sport Chalet went out of business.

Adidas AG

Adidas AG stock data
(Chart: David Clucas)

Adidas AG (ETR:ADS) regained its mojo after a few rough years and the brand is back in style, firmly behind sportswear leader Nike. Its outdoor business continues to thrive as well and its stock price is up 128.3 percent in the past five years.

Biggest Movers

Like any investment portfolio, there were winners and losers on the Outdoor Index.

Leading the pack on the U.S. markets with triple-digit percentage gains were:

  • Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (NYSE: GOOS +274%)
  • Johnson Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ: JOUT +222%)
  • Columbia Sportswear Co. (NASDAQ: COLM +200%)
  • Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK +127%)

Meanwhile, the following European companies聽fared best on overseas exchanges:

  • Adidas AG (ETR:ADS +128%)
  • Fenix Outdoor International AG (STO: FOI-B +199%)
  • Thule Group AB (STO: THULE +174%)

The top performers largely shared a common denominator by growing via acquisitions and market expansions. Johnson Outdoors (parent to Eureka Tents and a collection of paddlesports brands) acquired JetBoil; Columbia (parent to its namesake and Mountain Hardwear) bought prAna; and Deckers (parent to Teva and Ugg) added Sanuk and Hoka One One. In Europe, the key for Fenix (parent to Fjallraven, Hanwag, and Brunton) and Thule (which ventured into camping beyond its mainstay car racks) were expanded marketing and sales in United States.

Brands like Canada Goose, Columbia, adidas, Deckers, and Fenix also benefited in a big way from the popular athleisure fashion trends in the broader market during the past half decade, according to Nathan Pund, managing director at investment banking firm Houlihan Lokey.

“The outdoor customer has moved away from a hardcore brand to much more of an aspirational brand that they can wear in the city, too,” said Pund, who has focused on outdoor, active-lifestyle and tactical investments at various firms, including RBC Capital, Silver Steep Partners, D.A. Davidson and Lazard, since 2001. “Brands that provide apparel and footwear have fared better than those just focusing on equipment.”

But acquiring brands and pushing lifestyle gear hasn’t been a surefire bet for the industry.

Clarus Corp. (NASDAQ: CLAR -19%), parent to Black Diamond, had a rough go of it during the past five years, first acquiring a slew of outdoor brands, including Gregory and POC Sports, only to turn around and sell them and then see its iconic CEO Peter Metcalf leave the company.

Vista Outdoor Inc. (NYSE: VSTO -55%)聽also struggled, and its acquisitions of outdoor brands CamelBak and Camp Chef could not offset declines in its mainstay firearms businesses, which saw a boom and bust of business following the political and societal debates over gun control.

Fashion is also a tougher nut to crack for many outdoor brands, Pund noted. All of a sudden, that means competing within a much larger market with faster-moving trends. “If you’re on-trend, it can lead to great results,” he said, “but if you’re off trend, it’s a big challenge.” And outdoor brands can’t rely completely on fashion, he added鈥攖hey have to maintain their roots. “The North Face [owned by (NYSE:VFC +75%)] is a good example,” he said. “They still put a lot effort into core outdoor product to maintain their authenticity.”

Camping World acquires Uncle Dan's
Camping World acquired Uncle Dan’s in October 2017. (Photo: Courtesy)

Evolving Retail

To no surprise, for any retailer not named Amazon, the past five years were challenging鈥擠icks Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS -30%) and Camping World Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CWH +2.9%) both lagged.

“I think the breakdown of retail has been the biggest challenge,” Pund said, referring to recent bankruptcies and store closures across the retail spectrum from big-box to specialty retail, including Sports Authority, Sport Chalet, and Hudson Trail Outfitters, to name a few in the outdoor recreation space. “The historical way we shop has changed dramatically, and some brands have been better at adapting than others.”

He elaborated that the rise of Amazon and other online outlets such as Backcountry.com allowed consumers to bypass traditional brick-and-mortar retail to find the gear they wanted at more competitive prices. In addition, competition has come from direct-to-consumer channels, both online and through branded stores, where brands have benefited from higher margins and, perhaps more importantly, a deeper relationship with their customers via omni-channel strategies from targeted digital marketing to in-person, local events.

On the big-box front, retailers are looking for the same鈥攁 way to strengthen authentic relationships with shoppers, and that is likely the main driver behind Camping World’s acquisitions of specialty outdoor retailers Erehwon Mountain, Uncle Dan’s, and Rock Creek.

Tech Dominates

While our Outdoor Index kept pace with the broader S&P 500 and DJIA, its competition for investors on Wall Street is a familiar foe on the consumer front鈥攖he tech industry.

During the past five years, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Index聽rose 122 percent, outpacing the gains of the Outdoor Index. Going back to our example of an $18,000 investment, had you invested the same funds to follow the Nasdaq instead, you would have seen the investment rise to $52,560鈥攁 gain of $34,560.

Of course, this is just five years. The markets ebb and flow. Had one invested in the two indexes during, for example, the early 2000s, when the tech market crashed, then it’s likely the Outdoor Index outperformed. Plus, sometimes you want to put your money where your heart is and investing in the outdoors has been a decent deal.

Still, these past five years on the market paint a picture of what’s happening in the real world. People are spending more money on outdoor recreation…just not as much as they are spending on tech.

“I think tech will continue to outperform,” Pund said. “The question for the industry is what parts of tech can be integrated with the outdoors.”

Brands such as Garmin, for example, have benefited from the fitness-tracking angle聽(NASDAQ:aGRMN +70%), while GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO -78%) has struggled to fully capture the video-capture market.

“Enjoying the outdoors has become much more about the experience and sharing that experience via tech and social media,” Pund said, “versus the idea of going outdoors to seek solitude.”

Search #outdoors on Instagram
OBJ searched #outdoors photos on Instagram, which returned more than 36 million results. (Photo: Courtesy)

The Next Five Years

Looking ahead, Pund declined to pick any specific winners and losers on Wall Street鈥攂ut says the industry as a whole will continue to do well.

“Millennials are very excited for the outdoors, just in a different way than their parents were,” he said. “In the past, it was about mastering the one or two sports…today it’s about experiencing a wider scope of recreation.” The companies that will do best, from Pund’s perspective, are those that will remain engaged with the customer through social media and e-commerce, and through live experiential events.

He also sees continued merger and acquisition activity among the larger outdoor brands on Wall Street. “The market has become so competitive that it’s faster to acquire than build on your own.”

The Breakdown

Company Price 5 or less years ago Price as of June 19, 2018 Percentage
*Camping World Holdings Inc (Camping World, Uncle Dan’s) – NYSE: CWH 10/3/2016 23.75 6/19/2018 24.45 +2.9%
Clarus Corp. (Black Diamond) – NASDAQ: CLAR 6/19/2013 9.19 6/19/2018 7.45 -18.9%
VF Corp. (TNF, Timberland, etc.) – NYSE: VFC 6/19/2013 47.65 6/19/2018 81.7 +75.1%
Columbia Sportswear Co. (Columbia, Mountain Hardwear, prAna) – NASDAQ: COLM 6/19/2013 30.89 6/19/2018 92.59 +199.7%
Newell Brands Inc. (Marmot, Coleman, etc.) – NYSE: NWL 6/19/2013 27 6/19/2018 26.26 -2.7%
Amer Sports (Salomon, Arc’Teryx, Atomic, Suunto, etc.) – HEL:AMEAS 6/19/2013 13.81 6/19/2018 27.4 +98.4%
*Canada Goose Holdings Inc. – NYSE: GOOS 3/13/2017 18 6/19/2018 67.42 +274.4%
Under Armour Inc. – NYSE: UAA 6/19/2013 15.50 6/19/2018 22.62 +45.9%
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (Teva, Hoka, etc.) – NYSE: DECK 6/19/2013 53.18 6/19/2018 120.45 +126.5%
*GoPro Inc. – NASDAQ: GPRO 6/23/2014 28.65 6/19/2018 6.27 -78.1%
*Vista Outdoor Inc. (CamelBak, Camp Chef, etc.) – NYSE: VSTO 2/2/2015 38 6/19/2018 16.98 -55.3%
Garmin Ltd. – NASDAQ: GRMN 6/19/2013 35.82 6/19/2018 60.93 +70.1%
*Fenix Outdoor International AG (Fjallraven, Brunton, Hanwag, etc.) – STO: FOI-B 6/29/2014 358 6/19/2018 1070 +198.9%
Johnson Outdoors Inc. (Eureka, JetBoil, etc.) – NASDAQ: JOUT 6/19/2013 24.98 6/19/2018 80.3 +221.5%
Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (Chaco, Merrell, etc.) – NYSE: WWW 6/19/2013 26.33 6/19/2018 36.75 +39.6%
*Thule Group AB – STO: THULE 11/20/2014 80 6/19/2018 219.20 +174%
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. – NYSE: DKS 6/19/2013 52.01 6/19/2018 36.29 -30.2%
Adidas AG – ETR:ADS 6/19/2013 83.22 6/19/2018 189.95 +128.3%

*These companies went public less than five years ago, so their performance was calculated from their opening day on the market.

Outdoor Index – +81.6%

S&P 500 – +69.6%

DJIA – +61.3%

NASDAQ – +121.8%

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