When Fitbit announced its IPO in May, it initially planned to raise $100 million. That was a fairly modest estimate, but the company had reason to be conservative: many tech pundits were聽wondering , let alone thrive.听
On Thursday, the company silenced the critics, raising $732 million in its IPO (), and sending the value of the company skyrocketing over $4聽billion.听
Why is Fitbit worth so much? It鈥檚 not because investors think it聽can beat Apple. It鈥檚 because it聽doesn鈥檛 have to.
Fitbit isn鈥檛 playing in the same market as the computer maker. The majority of its trackers sell for around $100, while the cheapest Apple Watch costs more than $350. It鈥檚 like comparing Gap to Gucci. And with Fitbit聽rapidly gaining name recognition and becoming a noun that stands in for fitness tracker,聽the company will reach consumers Apple won鈥檛 touch鈥攊ncluding big corporations and insurers that want to outfit employees and clients with fitness trackers. 聽
鈥淭here are 10,000 to 20,000 companies in this country that are already giving employees聽or already considering giving Fitbits out as part of corporate wellness plans,鈥 says Angela McIntyre, head of wearables research at .听
For investors, it doesn鈥檛 hurt that Fitbit鈥檚 making money. A lot of it. Through the first quarter of 2015, Fitbit sold a third of all wearables,聽according to research firm IDC. Wall Street sees that as evidence of the company鈥檚 viselike grip on a lucrative market. In 2015, the company earned $745 million in revenue, and this year鈥檚 first-quarter earnings are up a massive 209 percent (to $336 million). Its margins on sales are over 50 percent.听
鈥淔itbit is one of the more impressive companies we鈥檝e analyzed in the past few years, from a financial perspective,鈥 Brian Hamilton, CEO of Sageworks, a Raleigh, North Carolina鈥揵ased research firm, wrote in a statement. 鈥淯nlike most tech IPOs we鈥檝e seen in the past few years, they鈥檙e actually making money.鈥澛
But if Fitbit succeeds in the post鈥揂pple Watch world, the question is: Who fails?聽
Likely . Unlike Fitbit, which has delivered promised products on time, the tech developer has suffered setback after setback.听In 2011, Jawbone鈥檚 Up wearable was plagued by software and hardware glitches, and subsequent versions of Up either haven鈥檛 been released on time聽or聽failed spectacularly.听Scathing reviews of Jawbone鈥檚 Up3聽haven鈥檛 helped. Even the company鈥檚 scramble to rush a replacement for the Up3 (the Up4) to market聽has been slow: Our own attempts to get one to test have been met with multiple delays.听
All of which is small potatoes compared to Jawbone鈥檚 financial struggles, including a lawsuit by one of its vendors.听
There鈥檚 also Jawbone鈥檚 own lawsuit. The , accusing the Wall Street darling of illegally poaching its employees. Certainly none of these headlines are helping Jawbone sell wearables, Bluetooth headsets, or speakers鈥攁ll sectors Jawbone has聽variously聽played in and even, at certain times, dominated.听
Jawbone won鈥檛 be the only wearable maker to struggle. This is an increasingly crowded segment with new brands constantly debuting on Kickstarter and Indiegogo. Slightly more established brands, such as , have to be careful how they grow.听
Misfit recently raised $40 million in its third round of funding, led by Xiaomi, China鈥檚 leading cellphone maker. Now Xiaomi is launching its own Mi fitness band that can be had on Amazon presale for聽as little as $13, which could undercut Misfit鈥檚 offerings.听
Overall, McIntyre believes Fitbit, like other top wearable makers, is going to continue to boom, in part because there鈥檚 so much room for the products to improve. She says the biggest gains will likely come to brands that make unconventional partnerships, citing HTC and Under Armour pairing up to make the forthcoming Grip fitness tracker. 鈥淭hose are two brands that don鈥檛 compete with each other, and together they get stronger.鈥
Of course, that requires willing partners. Fitbit鈥檚 health data can鈥檛 be ported into Apple鈥檚 Health app, for example, because Fitbit sees Apple as a rival (whether or not Wall Street does). But you could well see a brand like Lululemon and Fitbit collaborating on wearable tech that鈥檚 stylish rather than dorky.听
That鈥檚 almost surely a net gain, even for the fiercely fitness-focused, because it should lead to smarter聽and cooler devices that we鈥檒l actually want to wear. Even when we鈥檙e not sweating.