Something Toxic This Way Comes A teardrop-by-teardrop look at how close Newt Gingrich’s dream legislation is to becoming law. And who, if elected, might spoil his plans. THE BILL: Unbeknownst to most people, large companies often audit themselves to see how badly they’re polluting. (The EPA also conducts inspections, though randomly, like the IRS–and with a similar welcome.) In all but 19 states, these internal reports–which, among other uses, provide the companies with chits to trade in the air-pollution-rights THE PLAYERS: With Hatfield retiring, his seat becomes potentially pivotal in the EAP fight. Vying to replace him are moderate Democrat Tom Bruggere and Republican frozen-foods magnate Gordon Smith–whom the Sierra Club has accused of flouting pollution laws in his peas-and-carrots freezing operation. Smith is expected to take ownership of CRYSTAL BALL: Al Gore has lambasted the legislation, saying it threatens the public’s right to know. If he whipped up popular support, flocks of the more craven representatives would scuttle to his side. But for now, since most voters outside of the Smokestacks-R-Us lobby groups have never ever heard of EAP, a ‘yes’ vote is politically
THE BILL: Dubbed the Dirty Water Act by greens, the “reform” bill of Rep. Bud Schuster (R-Pennsylvania)–thoughtfully penned for him by lobbyists for the Chemical Manufacturers Association and companies such as International THE PLAYERS: J. Bennett Johnston (D-Louisiana), sponsor of a Senate version of wetlands “reform,” is retiring. The leading candidate to replace him, Mary Landrieu, is a moderate who if elected will likely scoot as far away as possible from Johnston’s bill. But she faces strong opposition from, among others, State Rep. Woody Jenkins, whose deep CRYSTAL BALL: Newt’s minions didn’t let their constituents in on their plans for the CWA last year, which turned out to be bad politics: According to the GOP’s own polls, voters like clean water. So look for suddenly unenthusiastic representatives to distance themselves from their earlier ‘yes’ votes. Meanwhile, conservatives may push to bring a
THE BILL: The brainchild of Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) and his Alaskan colleagues, Sens. Ted Stevens and Frank Murkowski–known to opponents as the Three Stooges of the Apocalypse–the proposed changes to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge THE PLAYERS: Stevens, one of the nation’s brownest legislators, will be named chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee if the Republicans hold their Senate majority–and if he’s reelected. A good bet, given that his underfunded challenger, Theresa Obermeyer, recently completed a 29-day jail term for disorderly conduct. Still, the key to CRYSTAL BALL: The Omnibus Parks Bill, once a sure bet for passage, has been so gang-loaded with amendments that it’s now a slouching, misshapen beast likely to die in committee. Young will probably then reintroduce his ANWR initiative as a stand-alone bill, provided the House holds or gains conservative seats. If not, he’ll attach it to another
THE BILL: The Endangered species Act has itself been endangered since ’92, with conservatives in both parties arguing that it champions insects over more-advanced life forms, such as apartment-complex developers. So it was with much THE PLAYERS: Young has ten times the campaign funds of his overmatched Democratic challenger, Georgianna Lincoln. He’s not likely to lose. However, other races are closer, including a contest involving Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-Maryland), one of the moderate Republicans who, by breaking ranks with the Gingrich troops, helped forestall the reforms CRYSTAL BALL: With the ESA still a favorite whipping boy among conservatives, they’ll almost certainly try to force a vote on Young’s bill at some point next year. But moderates will likely flee the cause, since voters generally favor protections for big, fuzzy wildlife–and sometimes even the small, scaly kind. Look for the more controversy-shy
THE BILL: Last year the unbowed owners of the Exxon Valdez sued the federal government for $125 million, claiming with remarkable chutzpah that their property had been “taken” when Congress barred the oil-spewing tanker from returning to THE PLAYERS: Rep. Elizabeth Furse (D-Oregon), a staunch opponent of takings in the House–and a sure obstacle to any House/Senate conference bill–is in a tight race against conservative Bill Witt in her state’s first district. But two Senate races could prove more pivotal. Takings champion Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) is not completely out of reach CRYSTAL BALL: Once a hobbyhorse of neo-moderates who rode it to show that they really, really care about property owners, the takings momentum has slowed recently, thanks to its billion-dollar cost and the threat of additional embarrassing Exxon Valdez-style incidents. Still, a similar bill did pass the House during the first 100 days of the
THE BILL: Separate bills by compatriot legislators, one sponsored by Rep. James Hansen (R-Utah), the other by Hatch, would open 20 of the 22 million acres of BLM land in southern Utah’s red rock country to mining, drilling, grazing, and road THE PLAYERS: Hansen faces little opposition in Utah, a state that enjoys a good conservative politician. However, unlucky spouse Rep. Enid Green, the Salt Lake City congresswoman who was a force behind Hansen’s bill, is retiring following her husband’s alleged check-kiting scheme. Merrill Cook, an explosives manufacturer, is set to replace her, but CRYSTAL BALL: Both bills will probably hit the floor for a vote next year. A related Senate provision introduced by Alaska’s Frank Murkowski, which allows states to plow right-of-way roads through public land, easily passed out of committee this session. But with nonwestern senators ditching their cowboy colleagues of late, the fate of Utah’s lands
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Something Toxic This Way Comes
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