国产吃瓜黑料

GET MORE WITH OUTSIDE+

Enjoy 35% off GOES, your essential outdoor guide

UPGRADE TODAY

Image
(Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

Inside the Crisis Threatening America鈥檚 Avalanche Experts

A budget crisis within the Forest Service means there will be fewer avalanche forecasters keeping backcountry skiers and snowmobilers safe this year. The cut has sparked a debate over the funding and operation of avalanche safety.

Published:  Updated: 
Image
(Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

New perk: Easily find new routes and hidden gems, upcoming running events, and more near you. Your weekly Local Running Newsletter has everything you need to lace up! .

When snow flurries fall on Seeley Lake, Montana, snowmobilers zip into the backcountry for another day of powdery bliss. The town, located 50 miles northeast of Missoula, boasts 400 miles of groomed trails through dense woods and over enchanting meadows, right to the foot of steep, snow-filled chutes.

“Five minutes from the trailhead and you’re on really technical stuff,” Karl Zurmuehlen, 50, a local backcountry guide, told 国产吃瓜黑料. “That’s what brings a lot of riders to Seeley Lake.”

But this winter, Seeley Lake’s picturesque trails and snow-covered slopes have become ground zero for a crisis gripping America’s small-but-dedicated community of avalanche forecasters.

In December, the made the tough decision to no longer send avalanche experts to Seeley Lake to test the snowpack. The Missoula-based center, which oversees a huge swath of backcountry in the state鈥檚 center, also announced that its avalanche forecasts for Seeley Lake would be published only sporadically this winter. The decision comes just four years after a in the area.

“I guess avalanche safety is going to become a word-of-mouth thing at Seeley Lake now,” said Zurmuehlen, who’s business, Kra-Z’s, also rents snowmobiles to visitors.

The avalanche center鈥檚 decision to pull back from Seeley Lake is a result of the recent budget and staffing predicament within the National Forest Service. In September, the Forest Service publicly announced for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. The agency, which manages 193 million acres of American grasslands and forests, also operates or helps fund 14 regional avalanche centers, including the West Central Montana center.

Abandoning one popular backcountry area may seem like a local issue. But forecasters who work within the Forest Service鈥檚 avalanche program told 国产吃瓜黑料 that a larger problem may be looming on the horizon. With the Forest Service’s future left to the whims of national politics, they worry that the agency鈥檚 avalanche program may suffer deeper cuts in 2026 and beyond. If that happens, the Forest Service鈥檚 avalanche centers will have to abandon more recreation areas like Seeley Lake.

This plight comes as more Americans than ever are venturing into avalanche terrain for outdoor recreation. Participation in backcountry skiing and snowboarding soared during the pandemic. The , a trade group for the skiing industry, reported approximately 4.9 million skiers and snowboarders recreated in the backcountry during the 2023-24 winter. That’s up from just 2 million during the 2017-18 winter.

Approximately 70 avalanche forecasters work within the U.S. Forest Service鈥檚 avalanche program. (Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

A sizable portion of these skiers and snowboarders rely on the published by Forest Service centers to assess danger. Within the tight-knit circle of avalanche forecasters, the Forest Service budget cut has sparked a debate over funding and managing avalanche safety in the United States.

“Right now is an inflection point,” said Patrick Black, the executive director of the West Central Montana Avalanche Center (WCMAC). “With so many uncertainties for this winter and winters to come, now is the time to revisit the current model for funding avalanche safety.”

How a Federal Shortfall Impacts Avalanche Forecasting

The bad news broke just a few weeks before the first snowfall blanketed the Rockies. In June, the U.S. House of Representatives from the $8.9 billion the agency requested for the 2024-25 fiscal year. On September 16, which was then released to the public, explaining how the massive agency, which , would address the shortfall.

For 2024 and 2025, the Forest Service would no longer hire part-time seasonal workers, except for wildland firefighting crews, he said. Losing these employees, called 鈥1039鈥 staff in Forest Service parlance, would require the agency to halt a wide range of seasonal duties, from trail maintenance to campsite cleanup.

鈥淲e are not going to do everything that is expected of us with fewer people,鈥 Moore said during the conference.

The news sounded alarm bells within the Forest Service鈥檚 14 avalanche centers, which are based in California, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Washington, and New Hampshire. Seasonal employees perform critical work during the winter at some of these centers. They venture into backcountry areas early each morning to observe snowfall and dig pits into the snowpack, looking for signs of avalanche danger. They work alongside year-round forecasters to process this information and combine it with weather data. And some of them also write the daily avalanche reports that appear online.

鈥淎valanche forecasts aren鈥檛 produced by machines. They鈥檙e done by people with high levels of expertise.鈥濃擲cott Schell, Northwest Avalanche Center

 

鈥淭here was panic,” said Scott Schell, executive director of the Northwest Avalanche Center鈥檚 non-profit organization. The NWAC, which is one of the 14 Forest Service centers, forecasts for Washington State and northern Oregon. 鈥淲ithout our seasonal workers we aren鈥檛 much of an avalanche center,鈥 Schell added.

Collectively, the NFS avalanche program employs approximately 70 workers; 55 are permanent positions or a designation called “seasonal permanent.鈥 The remaining 15 are seasonal positions. Of the 11 employees at the Northwest Avalanche Center, eight are seasonal workers, Schell said. All eight positions were jeopardized by the hiring freeze.

Avalanche forecasters Mark Staples (above) and Doug Chabot dig snow pits to assess snowpack. (Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

鈥淎valanche forecasts aren鈥檛 produced by machines,鈥 Schell said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e done by people with high levels of expertise.鈥

The Forest Service also funds and operates the National Avalanche Center, a collection of snow science experts and avalanche forecasters who train staff and coordinate resources between the 14 regional centers. Simon Trautman, the director of the National Avalanche Center, told 国产吃瓜黑料 that his office began working on solutions to the staffing crisis shortly after the call. “People do these jobs because they love what they do,” he said. “And because they believe the work ultimately saves lives.”

But in the days after the announcement, a solution seemed nearly impossible to attain. The Forest Service initially told avalanche centers they could not sidestep the staff cut by simply paying the seasonal salaries from their own coffers. The 14 NFS avalanche centers are funded in part by the agency; each center also raises a portion of its operational budget through non-profit donations, sponsorship sales, or from state agencies.

The ratio of private funding to NFS dollars differs for each center. Trautman said funding from sponsorship sales and non-profit organizations, called “friends groups,” account for slightly more than half of the total budget for the 14 centers. The Forest Service, he said, contributes $2.5 million annually to fund the centers.

鈥淲e鈥檙e essentially a rounding error,鈥 Schell said. “When you consider the impact we have.”

But the Forest Service still manages the centers, which means they are subjected to all agency-wide mandates, including staff cuts. That decision did not sit well within the avalanche program.

鈥淚njuries and fatalities will likely be the result of this cost-saving measure,鈥 Dwayne Meadows, the executive director of the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center, .

Meadows, Schell, and other avalanche center managers pushed back on the cut. Throughout September and into October, they contacted regional forest managers and asked, then begged, to be exempted from the hiring freeze.

鈥淲e are a crucial part of the economy,鈥 Meadows told 国产吃瓜黑料. 鈥淥utdoor recreation is part of what keeps our community going in the winter.鈥

Pressure mounted from outside the agency as well. In Wyoming, Senators John Barrasso and Cynthia Lummis, both Republicans, asked for the Bridger-Teton center to receive an exemption for its seasonal staff. On October 4, a letter signed by 42 different companies and nonprofits鈥攆rom the American Mountain Guides Association, to Montana鈥檚 Bridger Bowl Ski Area, to Colorado Mountain Club鈥攂egged Moore to allow the avalanche centers to remain fully-staffed.

鈥淔orest Service Avalanche Centers provide crucial tools for public safety and it is critical that these centers operate at full capacity this, and every, winter,鈥 the letter said.

The pressure worked. As the first snowfalls hit the high country, regional managers granted exemptions for the avalanche centers, or allowed them to fund seasonal staff through non-profit funds. The Intermountain Region, which oversees Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, granted exemptions to Bridger-Teton for its two seasonal positions; the Pacific Northwest region, which manages Oregon and Washington State, approved Schell’s request for all eight.

Former Utah Avalanche Center Director Mark Staples investigates the crown face of an avalanche (Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

At Montana鈥檚 Flathead Avalanche Center, which oversees the area surrounding Glacier National Park, the Northern Region manager approved one 1039 employee and allowed two seasonal-permanent employees to have their contracts extended. Other centers received exemptions, and by November, all 15 seasonal employees were saved.

The success “significantly helped morale,” Trautman said. “Because of leadership support, we are still in the avalanche forecasting business,” he added.

Patrick Black, the executive director of the West Central Montana Avalanche Center, watched as other centers received exemptions throughout September and October. But as the snow began to fall on the mountains outside Missoula, Black learned that his center, which does not employ 1039 workers, would receive a debilitating cut.

鈥淭here was a brief moment when it seemed like all of us were going to be safeguarded,鈥 Black told 国产吃瓜黑料. “We weren’t included. It was painful to hear.”

How Budget Cuts Hurt Avalanche Centers and the Backcountry Users that Rely on Them

If any avalanche group was destined to fall through the cracks, it was the West Central Montana Avalanche Center. Of the 14 centers affiliated with the Forest Service, it is the only one that operates as a true non-profit.

None of the avalanche center鈥檚 three full-time staff work for the Forest Service鈥攊nstead, they report to a board of directors and are paid by a non-profit called The West Central Montana Avalanche Foundation. The center raises $80,000 of its $120,000 annual budget through grants, donations, and sponsorships; the remaining $40,000 comes in via an annual Forest Service payment.

Avalanche debris and the East Fork of the South Fork of the Salmon River, Stibnite Road near Yellow Pine, Idaho (Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

鈥淚鈥檓 often envious of the other avalanche centers,鈥 Black said. 鈥淭heir friends groups and non-profits are on the hook for a much smaller percentage of their operating revenue.鈥

But the Forest Service support is still crucial: Each winter the agency gives the WCMAC three trucks to drive to and from forecasting areas, plus snowmobile use, and gas cards to cover fuel costs.

In late October, Black received the bad news from the regional forest supervisor. The Forest Service would not renew its $40,000 annual contract with the center, or provide vehicles or gas.

鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 sound like a ton of money, but to a small non-profit, losing that was devastating,鈥 Black said. 鈥淭o think we could squeeze any more out of our equation was unrealistic.鈥

鈥淔olks will not know until Saturday morning what we鈥檝e been seeing in the field. Honestly, I hate to even say this out loud.鈥 鈥擯atrick Black, West Central Montana Avalanche Center

He called a meeting with the center鈥檚 board members to come up with an operations plan amid the cuts. The center would need to rent vehicles for the six-month season, and cover the cost of fuel for hundreds of miles of weekly driving. Those added costs, plus the loss in $40,000, would require a reduction in head count, from three full-time forecasters to one full-time and one part-time.

The reduction in staff would also impact the center鈥檚 area of forecasting. Avalanche forecasters could no longer travel deep into the backcountry to dig pits or test the snowpack. Instead, they鈥檇 need to focus on the most popular trailheads near ski areas and towns.

鈥淲e鈥檙e prioritizing areas that are popular with the non-motorized community, like backcountry skiers and snowshoers,鈥 Black said. 鈥淭he areas where the motorized community goes are too far out.鈥

And finally, Black made the difficult decision to dramatically reduce the number of published avalanche forecasts in all areas. Prior to 2024, the West Central Avalanche Center published daily forecasts on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. For the 2024-25 season, employees will write reports for Saturdays and Sundays only.

鈥淔olks will not know until Saturday morning what we鈥檝e been seeing in the field,鈥 Black said. 鈥淗onestly, I hate to even say this out loud.鈥

Is it Time to Abandon the Forest Service Model?

In May, Forest Service chief Randy Moore on natural resources and energy to discuss his $8.9 billion budget request for the 2024-25 fiscal year. One by one, Republican and Democratic senators admonished Moore for the agency鈥檚 shortcomings in everything from wildfire prevention to timber sales.

鈥淭here鈥檚 broad agreement on this committee that the Forest Service is not meeting the challenge it confronts,鈥 Barrasso of said. 鈥淭he Forest Service must change course.鈥

Statements like this continue to cause consternation amongst Forest Service avalanche employees. Amid the change in presidential administration and a shift in power in Congress, there鈥檚 considerable doubt that the agency will receive the future funding it requires to function at its current size and scope. Meanwhile, the Forest Service鈥檚 annual spend on wildfire prevention and mitigation, , is likely to continue to rise.

A rescue party searches avalanche debris for a buried snowmobiler near Cook City, Montana (Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

Avalanche professionals worry that the agency鈥檚 solution to the 2024 staff cuts are temporary, and that additional cuts are likely to occur in the coming years.

鈥淚f I鈥檓 being honest, I鈥檓 not confident that the Forest Service is going to figure this one out,鈥 Black said. 鈥淚f we鈥檙e going to chart a course for seasons to come, it makes sense to invite new groups to the table to fund these programs.鈥

Even Trautman, who worked long hours in September and October to save the seasonal employees, worries that the current solution may not last forever. “There are significant unknowns around how we accomplish mission-critical summer work, or if we can hire seasonal and turnover positions for next fall,” he said.

Different funding models do exist within America鈥檚 avalanche centers. In addition to the 14 Forest Service avalanche centers, eight regional centers are operated by separate non-profits. The Colorado Avalanche Information Center, the country鈥檚 largest avalanche program, receives most of its funding from the state’s Department of Natural Resources, with additional funds coming from private donations, local governments, and the federal government.

The other avalanche center managers who spoke to 国产吃瓜黑料 for this story said that the current crisis has made them consider鈥攁nd even study鈥攆unding models that do not involve the Forest Service.

鈥淚f I鈥檓 being honest, I鈥檓 not confident that the Forest Service is going to figure this one out.鈥濃擯atrick Black, West Central Montana Avalanche Center

 

鈥淭here鈥檚 so much more the avalanche program could do if our current structure pointed us toward stability,鈥 Schell said. 鈥淭he amount of hours we spend worrying about funding alone could be put toward creating better forecasts.鈥

As Black and his board directors sought solutions to the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s budget crisis, he crunched the numbers to see how it could exist without Forest Service funding or involvement. Like other avalanche centers WCMAC sells memberships to backcountry users that grant them access to events and teachings.

If half of the center鈥檚 2,500 newsletter subscribers became paying members, the revenue would offset the lost Forest Service funds, Black said. Ramping up the center’s sponsorship sales could also boost its budget.

Black said that, if given more time for fundraising, the WCMAC could survive on its own.

鈥淚t feels like we鈥檙e a year ahead of the other centers in having these discussions,鈥 Black said.

Consequences of Forging a New Path

Everyone interviewed for the story admitted that divorcing the 14 avalanche centers from the Forest Service would have consequences. The agency provides liability insurance and legal support to the centers, which help protect them from lawsuits.

鈥淚f someone tries to sue the Forest Service they鈥檙e not going to get very far,鈥 Meadows said. 鈥淚f they sued our foundation with our non-profit insurance, they鈥檇 kill us.鈥

Jayne Nolan, the executive director of the non-profit American Avalanche Association, an industry group for avalanche professionals, said that the Forest Service model provides greater stability for staff, like health insurance and paid vacation time. Nolan believes that the Forest Service has an obligation to continue managing the centers.

The Forest Service hiring freeze threatened seasonal jobs at the 14 avalanche centers (Photo: U.S. Forest Service)

鈥淣early 95 percent of all avalanche fatalities occur on Forest Service land,鈥 Nolan said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the job of the Forest Service to reduce these numbers, even as backcountry skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling skyrockets.鈥

Bruce Tremper, who oversaw the Utah Avalanche Center from 1986 until his retirement in 2015 and wrote the seminal avalanche safety textbook, Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain, says alignment with the Forest Service also gives avalanche centers clout with the general public. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e part of the Forest Service then you have authority and legitimacy that people take seriously,鈥 Tremper said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just another non-profit springing up.鈥 That authority makes backcountry users more inclined to pay attention to its warnings, he said.

Tremper said he endured multiple budget cuts, government shutdowns, and staffing shortages during his 29 years with the Utah Avalanche Center. Learning to exist amid the agency鈥檚 dysfunction is simply part of the job, he said.

鈥淚t took me a long time to figure out the rules and regulations of how to work in a government agency,鈥 he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 like a big aircraft carrier and it鈥檚 hard to change direction when you鈥檙e in it.鈥

But Schell worries that this mindset has stifled innovation, and prevented avalanche centers from discovering better models for funding and management. The Northwest Avalanche Center will celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2025. And despite the center鈥檚 growth in fundraising and its advancements in snow science and avalanche prediction, the program is still vulnerable to shifts in the Forest Service鈥檚 budget and management structure.

鈥淲e鈥檝e bootstrapped these centers for 40 or 50 years,鈥 Schell said. 鈥淎t what point can we have a durable and sustainable program?”

Schell told 国产吃瓜黑料 that the NWAC would continue to 鈥渓ean into鈥 the Forest Service relationship for 2025 and beyond. Rather than pursue non-profit status or state-run structure, he said the center would instead ask the agency to consider a different operational model for the centers. At the moment, all 14 avalanche centers exist within the Forest Service鈥檚 arcane management structure of regional forests and ranger districts. A center鈥檚 budget and staff size are decided by regional, and not national, managers.

鈥淲e need to find the right people inside the Forest Service to make the whole avalanche program stand on its own,鈥 he said.

Black echoed Schell鈥檚 sentiment. In mid-December, the WCMAC began talks with the Forest Service for a smaller contract, one that included access to vehicles. But the uncertainty, Black said, still gave him considerable anxiety about the future.

鈥淭he whole thing frightens me,鈥 he said.

Whether or not the lack of avalanche reports affects Seeley Lake鈥檚 snowmobilers this winter is yet to be seen. After a few early season storms in November, the lake saw sunshine in December, and the trails at lower elevations were mostly bare in the weeks before Christmas. But Zermeuhlen was confident that business would soon be booming.

鈥淲e鈥檒l be inundated,鈥 he said. 鈥淗undreds of people heading out every weekend.鈥

Popular on 国产吃瓜黑料 Online