On Saturday, skiing the fall line of Crystal Mountain鈥檚 Right Angle Trees in Washington鈥檚 Cascade Range, I made听turns without hitting听bottom听for the first time this season, and felt that perfect zero-G float of powder skiing. This past week has felt like a reprieve: snowy, cold, and deep. The winter I鈥檝e been waiting for finally showed up.
But听of course, there was a bottom to the snowpack. And the better-late-than-never storms have had a real dark side. Like almost everyone who backcountry-skis, I鈥檝e been spending a lot of the past few weeks thinking about the layers in this year鈥檚 skinny snowpack, and how snow, or the lack thereof, stacks up . Droughts between storms听suck moisture out of the snow. Hoarfrost layers form on the surface on cold, clear nights. Snowpack freezes and thaws. Heavy wet storms sit听on top of dry, slippery crystals. Those layers are a present danger, as we鈥檝e seen in so many recent slides: have died in avalanches so far this season, more than any other period in the past .听
These sorts of volatile winter-weather cycles affect the future of our water supply, too.听 has shown how our skimpy powder days and warm winter rains carry down the chain into summer and fall and impact water use, drought, and even fire resiliency. Consistent weak winters like the ones we鈥檝e been having in the West听make everything harder.
So while it鈥檚 easy to have FOMO looking at Instagram posts of Utah fluff and deep turns in Jackson, don鈥檛 forget that听 of Utah听and听 of听Wyoming are听still in听a drought and听trying to creep back听to . Even the big storm that slammed California last month to bring its moisture content up to where it needs to be. More than half the country is听, and at this point in the season, water managers say we鈥檙e looking at the difference between a dry year and a听.
You might imagine droughts as long periods without rain, but they听can also be caused by warm winters and a lack of water in the snowpack鈥攔eferred to as听鈥攊n places that depend on mountain runoff for their water supply and storage. , led by assistant professor听, looked at snow-water equivalent (the amount of water contained in snowpack), precipitation, and temperature to quantify snow drought and track it globally. It found that from 1980 to 2018, the western U.S. experienced a 28 percent increase in the duration of its snow droughts, the in the world.
Warming is stressing our existing systems for water supply and delivery, and it鈥檚 going to get worse.
Scientists in recently scorched听California aren鈥檛 the only ones thinking about snow drought. A January paper from听 found that water storage is declining worldwide and could more than double its losses by the end of the century as a result听of a lack of precipitation and moisture. Warming is stressing our existing systems for water supply and delivery,听and it鈥檚 going to get worse.
So where do we go from here? The Colorado River is a good bellwether for drought management. It drains the Rockies, starting in Rocky Mountain National Park, and spreads across the arid southwestern corner of the country. It is so overused that it no longer flows into its delta in the Gulf of California. To try to address that stress, researchers at the听, based at Utah State University, just 听outlining future water-management plans for the Colorado River Basin. And their timing is good,听because this January marked the beginning of a five-year process to renegotiate the interim guidelines for managing the Colorado鈥攁 rare and important opportunity to recalibrate.
looks at looks at just how dry听the river has been during the beginning of the 21st century, how climatic factors like warming can suck a watershed dry, and how human decision-making听and overuse are听exacerbating the depletion. More than 80 percent of the river basin is in extreme drought. The major man-made storage reservoirs are听 and the planet鈥檚 natural storage鈥攕nowpack and soil moisture鈥攁re depleted, too.
So even if the Rockies do get a few more late-season storms听and the skiing stays good through the spring, the Colorado River Basin is in a hole that鈥檚 hard to get out of when it relies solely听on precipitation. Plus, in years like 2020, when the snowpack in the Rockies was decent, water levels were still low because summer monsoons were skimpy, and it was so dry and warm that the soil sucked up moisture. In Utah, according to the Utah Climate Center, soil moisture levels are about听 where they should be.
The Futures of the Colorado River Project concretely outlines how water managers, citizens, utilities, and states will have to be much more careful with water use in the future听if we want to maintain some level of equitable livability. 鈥淭he risks of drought and climate change are both uncertain and potentially severe; however, our ability to control these futures is extremely limited compared to our ability to control the future demands for water,鈥 the authors wrote.
In the summary, the paper鈥檚 authors say they want to听鈥渆ncourage wide-ranging and innovative thinking about how to sustainably manage the water supply.鈥 They advise cutting back river-basin use by听 in some places to account for diminished flows听and to match consumption with available supply. That will have to mean听reductions across the board, from municipal and industrial use to agriculture鈥攖he biggest user in the Colorado River Basin.
Just like skiing, our future water availability depends on when, where, and how moisture comes;听what we do with that information; and how conservative we choose to be. And yes, sometimes you get lucky. Maybe we鈥檒l get a decade of wet winters after this. Maybe I鈥檒l see another day like Saturday this season. But based on current conditions and past history,听we can鈥檛 bank on it. We can鈥檛 just get myopic and think about one storm.听We have to assume it鈥檚 going to continue to be bad听and change our behavior to adapt.