Sea level rise, caused primarily by human-induced climate change, will pose a challenge to national parks on America鈥檚 coasts.
After months of controversy, the National Park Service last week finally released a . To many, that鈥檚 an unenjoyable but logical statement. But in the age of Trump, getting that 鈥渉uman-induced鈥 part into a government report was a hard-won battle. Though the report鈥檚 conclusions might not be shocking, its very publication is groundbreaking in an administration that has routinely denied climate change exists, let alone that it鈥檚 caused by our own actions.
Here鈥檚 why the report鈥攂oth what it did and didn鈥檛 say鈥攊s important.
Some 'Reveal'-ing Background
In 2013, NPS hired University of Colorado Boulder scientist Maria Caffrey to lead a report detailing coastal parks鈥 vulnerability to sea level rise. The goal was to equip park managers with the latest data, but the innocuous paper turned contentious when President Trump took office in 2017.
As the investigative website Reveal in April, release of the sea level report was delayed at least ten months while NPS officials combed out any mention of human-caused climate change. The revelation was a bombshell given the fact that Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, just weeks earlier, said in a Senate hearing that censoring scientific reports was not taking place. 鈥淭here is no incident, no incident at all that I know that we ever changed a comma on a document itself,鈥 . 鈥淎nd I challenge you, any member, to find a document that we鈥檝e actually changed on a report.鈥
Alas, the truth emerged. Documents obtained by Reveal showed such phrases as 鈥渁nthropogenic climate change鈥 being axed by NPS officials. Zinke claimed in a subsequent House hearing that he had no idea about the edits, but ; an is pending. The censorship aligns with myriad Trump administration efforts, mostly in the Interior Department and the Environmental Protection Agency, to discredit mainstream climate science. But, at least in this instance, science won out.
鈥淭he fight probably destroyed my career with the [National Park Service],鈥 Caffrey told Reveal, 鈥渂ut it will be worth it if we can uphold the truth and ensure that scientific integrity of other scientists won鈥檛 be challenged so easily in the future.鈥
Kiss the Coasts Goodbye
The report examined how rising oceans will affect 118 park units, and it鈥檚 clear that low-lying East Coast and Gulf of Mexico parks will be most affected. Unless efforts to curtail greenhouse gases take place, coasts outside the nation鈥檚 capital will see a 2.6-foot rise in sea levels by 2100, high enough that storm surges could flood the National Mall. Waters surrounding Wright Brothers National Memorial, on North Carolina鈥檚 Outer Banks, will see a 2.7-foot increase. At that level, a Category 2 hurricane would leave the park 鈥渁lmost completely flooded,鈥 the report says. Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad, Cape Hatteras, and numerous others could see waters rise 2.5 feet. Like Wright Brothers, a Category 2 storm surge would flood pretty much all of Everglades National Park.
What the report鈥檚 predictions don鈥檛 consider, the authors note, is that much of America鈥檚 East Coast is slowly lowering into the sea, which magnifies the effect of rising waters. Using rough calculations, the authors figured that Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve, in Louisiana, could experience a relative sea level rise of nearly five feet by 2100.
Wait, It鈥ll Cost How Much?
National parks out west preserve scenery; back east, they mostly preserve history. Peppered in the report are historical battlefields, forts, famous-person residences, and other structures we鈥檝e deemed important to keep intact for future generations. Flooding, of course, is incompatible with preservation.
Structures like Fort Jefferson, in Dry Tortugas National Park, sit literally at sea level. But even inland parks are threatened by storm surges if they lie along inlets or coastal rivers. This is problematic for a department that, as Zinke routinely reminds us, has a $12 billion maintenance backlog.
Failure to prepare for rising seas could be prohibitively expensive for NPS. In a published in 2015 (back when it was safe to talk about climate change), researchers examined 40 coastal parks to see which were at risk if the sea level rose one meter. The cumulative value of roads, trails, buildings, campgrounds, and other at-risk structures surpassed $40 billion. But even before that study was published, its authors figured they had lowballed estimates. The immense damage wrought by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, they wrote, 鈥渟uggests that we have been conservative in labeling an asset as high exposure. In other words, the assets identified in this study as being vulnerable are most certainly vulnerable, and the total is likely to be an underestimate.鈥
Zinke Could Make It All Worse
Zinke supports legislation that would tie park maintenance to energy receipts. Pending an unforeseen boom in wind and solar development, that means oil, gas, and coal receipts would fund repairs to the damage that burning oil, gas, and coal has wrought.
One might argue that slowing hydrocarbon production on public lands wouldn鈥檛 do much to stem the advance of global warming, but recent research suggests otherwise. If the federal government were to halt energy leases, , U.S. carbon dioxide emissions would diminish 5 percent by 2030.
Acknowledging the human impact of climate change in this study was undeniably a win鈥攊t鈥檚 critical that government-sponsored scientists are able to report findings unvarnished by politics鈥攂ut it鈥檚 probably not going to start a revolution of thought in the current administration. Drilling will continue apace. At least we now have an idea of which national parks will be underwater as a consequence.