Is It Too Late for the Southern Resident Orcas?
Researcher Ken Balcomb has spent more than half his life studying the iconic killer whales of Washington鈥檚 San Juan Islands and raising awareness about their struggle for survival. Now he may have run out of time.
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He still watches from the house. The west side is a wall of picture windows, with a deck that runs its length; a railing leans toward the water with anticipation. Yet what hangs in the damp Northwest聽air is dread. Instead of counting who is there, he鈥檚 looking for who is missing. The Southern Resident killer whales still come by, and聽sure, people get excited about one here and a couple there, and every so often they all come together, but it鈥檚 not like it used to be. There are 74 individuals left, mostly males and non-reproducing females. There are a handful of babies, but most of them won鈥檛 make it.
Ken Balcomb, 80 but still rugged, is wearing a brown plaid shirt open like a jacket, an 鈥淥rca Freedom Concert鈥 T-shirt, and jeans with a chunky brass-buckled belt sporting a Native killer whale motif. He resembles a gentle bear, all back and shoulders and a face covered in a thick beard. It鈥檚 the face of someone who has spent most of his life on the water. Like the warmth of a log fire, the stories he鈥檚 collected take some encouragement and are slow to get going, but if you stay awhile, there鈥檚 nothing like them. It鈥檚 the summer of 2020, and we鈥檙e at the Center for Whale Research, which is also Ken鈥檚 house. The 1960s cedar-shingled bungalow sits on a grassy clearing just up from the high-tide line of Haro Strait on the northwestern edge of San Juan Island in Washington State.聽
Not one for small talk, Ken starts clicking on computer files displaying killer whale fins. 鈥淪o here we have J26, right side and left side. Well, it鈥檚 J26, but it鈥檚 not a catalog-quality picture, so we鈥檒l just use this to confirm that he was here today.鈥 This is called proof of presence.
Proof of presence is slim these days. When I was a researcher here 21 years ago, these whales spent almost every day from May through September around the San Juan Islands. Since then sightings have become fewer and fewer. the Southern Residents didn鈥檛 appear until July; they stayed 24 days, then left for the whole of August, coming back for only a few days in September.聽
鈥淚鈥檓 going to sell the house. Or rent it out,鈥 Ken tells me. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to be here. It鈥檚 unlike the past.鈥
He points to a poster behind me. Covering two walls are large-format versions of the ID catalog, family trees for all the individuals in the Southern Resident killer whale population. There are two kinds of boxes on the poster鈥攐nes with photos of fins and ones without. The ones with fins show whales that are still alive. The ones without show a name, date of birth, and date of death.
聽鈥淟ook at all the frickin鈥 tombstones,鈥 he says.聽
Every year researchers prune the catalog of who is missing and who is dead. On the poster Ken鈥檚 pointing to, I see five fins and 22 empty boxes. 鈥淭here is zero possibility of reproduction in here,鈥 he says. 鈥淭hey are all males and a post-reproductive female. That鈥檚 nothing. That鈥檚 not going to grow.鈥
He points to another poster and another fin, a 46-year-old female. 鈥淪he had her last calf ten years ago, and before that鈥攖here, see?鈥攁 whole bunch of them in a row died.鈥 There are three photos of living offspring, then four tombstones: born in 2000 and last seen in 2001, born in December 2002 and missing one month later, born in June 2005 and missing later that summer, born in August 2008 and missing later that month. The two living daughters have had only one surviving calf each, and both are male.
鈥淲e can go through this whole thing,鈥 he says, waving his arms at all the posters, 鈥渁nd there鈥檚 only a few potentially reproductive females for the future. I鈥檝e told the government folks that for the next 20 to 30 years you have no chance of an increased population鈥擨 mean a seriously viable population.鈥
This is a jarring beginning to my conversation with Ken, at odds with my nostalgia for being back at the Center for Whale Research and my optimism for a population of killer whales that I sometimes watch from the park at the top of my street in Seattle.