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El Ni帽o: It ain't over till it's over.
El Ni帽o: It ain't over till it's over. (Photo: Paul Giamou/iStock)

Is El Ni帽o Over? Not By a Long Shot

Surfers, hikers, skiers, and just about everyone else in the West will continue to feel the effects of the Pacific weather event this year

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El Ni帽o: It ain't over till it's over.
(Photo: Paul Giamou/iStock)

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鈥淒on鈥檛 count it out yet,鈥 Klaus Wolter, a research scientist at CU聽Boulder and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association鈥檚 , told me recently. It was a warm April day in Boulder, Colorado, where the lab is located, and Wolter, an El Ni帽o expert wearing a short-sleeve floral print shirt, seemed excited for the change of season. We were on our way to the 鈥淲ar Room鈥濃攁n otherwise innocuous conference room save for the large screen on the wall featuring various spinning, crimson-splashed El Ni帽o weather models.聽

This past winter, Wolter and other members of NOAA鈥檚 team met here every day鈥攁nd even some weekends鈥攖o assess Ni帽o 3.4, the area of equatorial Pacific between 170 degrees West longitude and 120 degrees West longitude, where El Ni帽o is born. The weather phenomenon shows up on Sea Surface Temperature models as a bloody gash that stretches to South America鈥檚 northwest coast. (Red indicates above-average temperatures.) As the 2015/16 El Ni帽o intensified to historic proportions, so too did the meetings in the War Room.

The Rapid Response Field Campaign was an , involving a hurricane hunter Gulfstream IV jet, a NASA Global Hawk drone, and a research ship that together covered 115,000 miles of Pacific Ocean, from Ni帽o 3.4 to the California Coast. Along the way, they launched over 700 instruments into the atmosphere, amassing never-gathered-before, real-time data on El Ni帽o weather events. Wolter has classified the 2015/16 El Ni帽o as one of the 鈥淏ig Boys鈥濃攍ate summer water temperatures in the tropical Pacific hit record highs, and initial 鈥減ostmortem鈥 data suggests it will rank as the third strongest since 1950, behind the 1997/98 and 1982/83 events.

While the crimson gash may be fading to a less violent yellow-orange slice, that doesn鈥檛 mean El Ni帽o has ceased its tormenting. As Wolter said: 鈥淚t鈥檚 still twitching.鈥 By analyzing other Big Boy El Ni帽o postmortems鈥攑articularly 1997/98鈥檚 鈥淕odzilla鈥 event鈥攚e can guess at the near future. Here鈥檚 a peek for you adventurers:

Surfers: An Unpredictable Hurricane Season

Last week, NOAA鈥檚 Climate Prediction Center a 鈥淟a Ni帽a Watch鈥 in Ni帽o 3.4. Historically, La Ni帽as favor above average Atlantic hurricane activity. Yet last week, Colorado State University their 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, which predicts an average season: 12 named storms. While post-strong El Ni帽o years are all over the map, they usually host that makes landfall somewhere on the U.S. East or Gulf coasts. For example, in the under-active 1983 season (just four named storms), Hurricane Alicia devastated the Houston-Galveston area. But after the truly Godzilla 1997/98 El Ni帽o, the Atlantic went berserk, tallying 14 storms, three of which were Category 3+鈥攊ncluding Hurricane Bonnie, which made landfall in North and South Carolina, but sent perfect surf to the Northeast and New England coasts.聽

Hikers: A Turbulent, Wet Interior

Looking again at the months following the 1997/98 El Ni帽o season鈥攖he strongest on record鈥攖he Heartland was ravaged by an unprecedented 1,424 tornadoes. In fact, on a single day鈥擬ay 31, 1998鈥攖here were 42 tornados, from Kentucky to Canada. Wolter, whose forecasting focuses on the interior Southwest鈥攕pecifically Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah鈥攊s predicting that it will be a wet spring, which is welcome news for the drought-stricken region. He points to powerful snowstorm that dumped several feet of snow across Colorado and in northern New Mexico between April 15-17鈥攋ust a few days after my visit, when Boulder was bathed in 75-degree sunshine. Increased precipitation can mean flooding, of course, particularly after snow melts and in areas where dry riverbeds are in abundance.

Snowboarders, Skiers: Record Pow?

Precipitation distribution on the West Coast this El Ni帽o winter was just weird. Northern California got a good dose of rain and snow, but not enough to eliminate the drought conditions in the state鈥檚 southern regions, where it was unusually dry for an El Ni帽o season. Instead, the wettest events hit the Pacific Northwest, which are historically dry during El Ni帽o events. Looking ahead, we can point to the moderately strong La Ni帽a that began in 1998 and persisted through 1999 and caused a higher frequency of wet and cold weather, particularly in the Cascade Range. Case in point: Washington鈥檚 Mount Baker Ski Area saw a record-breaking 95 feet of snow between July 1, 1998 and June 30, 1999.

Ah, But that Climate Change X-Factor

Directly linking human-forced climate change to El Ni帽o, a naturally-occurring weather phenomenon, is impossible right now. But the massive amount of new data gathered by the Rapid Response campaign will support ongoing research that鈥檚 looking into how future El Ni帽o events will respond to our warming world. What we do know is that global climate change is accelerating. Last year was the hottest on record, and that trend helped cause the horseshoe-shaped western edge of Ni帽o 3.4 to be much warmer than usual for an El Ni帽o event. Also, the first few months of 2016 have not just been the warmest on record, . The question then is perhaps not how much more wild the weather will become in 2016, but if wild will be the new norm鈥擡l Ni帽o or not.聽

Lead Photo: Paul Giamou/iStock

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