I鈥檓 one of those people who will tell you that a river trip in the Grand Canyon changed her聽life. Last May, after joining a friend鈥檚 50th birthday celebration on a guided rafting trip on the upper portion of the canyon, I paddled, mesmerized by the spectacular shades of red and orange rock walls towering above me, their layers telling stories of geology, history, and the innermost workings of the Sonoran Desert. I鈥檓 sure our guides told us about all of it, but it wasn鈥檛 the details that moved聽me. It was the river itself, the transformative power of being ferried by the wondrous lifeforce from our put-in to our take-out. I can鈥檛 say exactly how, but when I emerged from the canyon after six days of floating and sleeping alongside those flowing waters, I was different. I was better.
Now, I wonder how many more people after me will get to experience the same magic. Climate change, a rising population, and unsustainable consumption of water in the southwest are threatening the very existence of the Colorado River that鈥檚 been running through the center of the Grand Canyon for six million years. It鈥檚 a complex issue that seven states and Mexico鈥攁ll of which utilize water from the river鈥攈ave been fighting about for years. And it鈥檚 a dilemma the recently dedicated $15.4 billion dollars towards trying to solve, including a 聽to give $1.2 billion dollars to the states of Arizona, California, Nevada, and several Native American tribes in exchange for cutting their water consumption between now and the end of 2026.
The situation runs much deeper than keeping the water flowing so people like you and me can hoot, holler, and regenerate on rafting trips. But if floating the Colorado River through the belly of the Grand Canyon is on your bucket list, it鈥檚 time to put your plan into action. Wait too long, and there may not be a river to run. Or, at least, regulations on boating trip sizes may make securing a permit or a spot on a guided trip聽harder than they are now. It could even make running the river more dangerous.
If rafting isn鈥檛 possible in the future, there鈥檚 no guarantee that another form of recreation鈥攐ne that allows us to marvel at the canyon’s magnitude from the base of the canyon鈥攚ill take its place. So before you start imagining being able to walk, hike, run, or even ride a bike down the center of the Grand Canyon, think about this: with the Colorado River drying up, the entire ecosystem will change. The animals who drink from the river, and eat the plants that grow from the river, will leave. Plant life will transform鈥攎ore cactus than trees鈥攁nd inhospitable heat will make recreation of any sort unbearable. And though adventurous pursuits may seem like a shallow concern next to water rights, agriculture, and livelihoods, most conservationists started as recreationalists. Right now, 27,000 people travel downriver through the Grand Canyon each year, and hopefully each one leaves caring more about preservation鈥攇ood news for Earth, who needs all the help she can get.
The Colorado River Is Drying Up: How This Impacts the Grand Canyon鈥檚 Future聽
The Colorado River runs roughly 1,450 miles in its entirety, originating in Colorado鈥檚 Rocky Mountain National Park and gaining momentum from snowmelt and tributaries as it winds south towards Mexico. It used to reach the coast, but has trickled to a dry, dusty wash miles inland since 1980.
According to Brian Buma, a climate scientist who works for the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) in Boulder, Colorado, every one degree Celsius of air temperature rise due to climate change-induced warming leads to a 6.5 percent reduction (plus or minus roughly 3.5 percent) in the Colorado River鈥檚 base flow.
鈥淎s the temperature goes up, we simply evaporate more water at every step of the process,鈥 says Buma. Despite the great snowfall the region received this past winter, Buma says that by 2070, there will be a 20-30 percent decrease in snowpack around the Upper Colorado River basin, also due to climate change. 鈥Drought conditions and a warmer earth mean water that might join a tributary that flows into the Colorado River evaporates (either directly or via plants) back into the atmosphere instead.鈥
Explosive population growth in the southwest also plays a role. The Colorado River Compact鈥攚hich allocates water rights between the Upper (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming) and Lower Basins (Arizona, Nevada, California) was created and signed in 1922 when there were roughly 500,000 people across those seven states. 鈥淭he assumption was that the population of the Southwest would never be more than four times the amount of that population,鈥 says Sinjin Eberle, Southwest Region Communications Director with American Rivers, a nonprofit organization that works to ensure the health and vitality of waterways in the U.S. 鈥淭oday there’s over 40 million people in the basin, with a 100-year-old framework dividing the river.鈥
Those states鈥攁nd some of the Indigenous聽tribes in and near the river basin鈥攗se water from the Grand Canyon to sustain agriculture, for drinking water, and to exist, really. The water rights issue has been hotly contested for decades, and the situation is becoming more dire.
鈥淵ou have an over allocated river to begin with,” says Eberle. “You have a sharply growing population and you have 20 percent less water. The bank account is over tapped.鈥
The recent agreement among the Lower Colorado River basin states should help, as they鈥檝e all vowed to make cuts in how much water they use. But since the agreement ends in 2026, long-term solutions are still required in order to keep the river flowing.
277 Miles of Sand聽
Aside from sustaining life in the southwest, the river is sacred to at least 11 Indigenous cultures who have lived in and around the canyon. (The Havasupai, Halaupai, Navajo, and Pauite remain in the greater area.) The Colorado River carries with it the history and spirit of Native American life. The river also carries sand, which protects archaeological sites from erosion. “Without [it], they would be exposed, and they would erode and deteriorate. And people would go see them and mess with them,鈥 says Eberle.
Sand is important for recreation, as well, because it forms and reinforce beaches along the shores of the river. Without the beaches, there鈥檇 be no place for boaters to camp each night.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation controls the flow of water out of Lake Powell through Glen Canyon Dam in Northern Arizona into the Grand Canyon. (And, surprise, Lake Powell鈥檚 water levels have become frighteningly low.) 鈥淭he dam blocks 99% of the sediment going downstream,鈥 says Buma, 鈥渨hich currently contributes to erosion and a lot of these archaeological sites are getting hammered.鈥
Eberle says the majority of sand that enters the Colorado River in the canyon comes from the tiny Paria River, but most of that sand just 鈥渟its in front of the Paria.鈥 The Bureau of Reclamation occasionally orders a high-intensity, short-duration flood鈥攁 large release of water through Glen Canyon dam meant to move the sand downriver through the Grand Canyon, which helps rebuild beaches and sandbars. The Bureau like this in April 2023, the first of its kind since November 2018. Ideally, these high-intensity, short-duration floods would happen more often, but in recent years there just hasn鈥檛 been enough water to make it feasible.
A healthy, flowing river also scours the vegetation along the shores of the beaches鈥攁 good thing for rafters.聽鈥淚f they鈥檙e not scoured out, there鈥檚 just vegetation that encroaches on the beaches,鈥 says Eberle. So even if the Colorado continues to flow through the canyon, a reduction in water overall could mean more vegetation and less room for boaters to camp.
How Recreation Could Change at the Grand Canyon
The National Park Service limited the size of rafting trips back in 2006 due to shrinking beaches along the shores of the river.聽Since then, a handful of forced flows out of Glen Canyon Dam have kept restrictions at bay; beaches have come and gone.
Luckily for those wanting to run the river as it diminishes in size, there鈥檚 no 鈥渕agic level鈥 that will preclude rafting, according to Janet Balsom, Chief of Communications, Partnerships & External Affairs Office of Grand Canyon National Park. The National Park Services says that the river flows between 8,000-25,000 cubic feet per second (CFS), and Balsom has run the river when it was at a mere 2,500 CFS. 鈥淏oaters will find a way, even if it鈥檚 in a Sportyak鈥 (a small dinghy), she says.
If the river dries up entirely, rafting will obviously become impossible, as will the need for sandy camping beaches.
Aside from providing a watery playground for boaters, the river also currently serves as a cooling station for hikers, backpackers, and those seeking FKTs聽running Rim to Rim (or Rim to Rim to Rim). Trail users in the canyon rely on drinking water from seeps and springs in the area, which, according to Balsom, haven鈥檛 shown diminished levels similar聽to the Colorado River. 鈥淎lthough,鈥 she adds, 鈥渢hat鈥檚 one of the areas where we wish we had more information.鈥
But without a river, foot travelers wouldn鈥檛 be able to dunk and refresh once they reach the bottom, and the entire canyon would run hotter. The absence of moving water would increase temperatures at an unknown percentage, while a decreased number of trees and shrubs (shade) would turn up the heat as well. The hottest place in the canyon, Phantom Ranch, has already recorded temps of 120 degrees Fahrenheit on several聽summer days.
And bikes, which aren鈥檛 allowed beneath the rim now, still wouldn鈥檛 be allowed beneath the rim if the river dried up, says Balsom. 鈥淚t really is about safety and non-compatible uses,鈥 says Balsom. 鈥淐an you imagine bikes interacting with mules and hikers? And the medicals that would ensue?鈥
But beyond how we enjoy the Grand Canyon potentially changing, a trickle of a river creates a massive crisis for ranchers, farmers, cities, and millions of people who utilize water, energy, and food grown from a flowing Colorado River. And it would jeopardize the preservation of cultural landmarks and spiritual heritage of the 11 associated Indigenous tribes who consider themselves directly tied to Grand Canyon.
For now, stakeholders from every angle are working to find a solution for the canyon and the Colorado River that runs through it. 鈥淥ur ultimate responsibility is the preservation of the resources as unimpaired as they can be,鈥 says Balsom on behalf of the National Park Service. 鈥淎nd visitor uses are really secondary, because if you don’t maintain the integrity of the resource, you’re not going to have the visitor experience you want.鈥
鈥淲ater is everything,鈥 adds Buma. 鈥淎nd we can鈥檛 make water. We can make all sorts of things, but we can鈥檛 make water. We just can鈥檛.鈥