It was a little after 10 p.m. on a bitterly cold January evening in 2015聽when ISIS launched one of its most devastating assaults yet. Paddling on rafts across the muddy brown Upper Zab River,聽a tributary of the mighty Tigris River,聽160 fighters used the cover of a thick fog bank to sneak up on a dozing company of Iraqi Kurdish troops stationed near Mosul. By the time the unprepared soldiers had roused themselves and located the ISIS fighters among the mist, the jihadists had burrowed deep into their base and聽.

Two weeks later, ISIS deployed similar tactics鈥攁 sneak attack in bad weather鈥�50 miles down the frontline, at the disputed northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. Under a steady downpour, with visibility cut to almost zero, three suicide bombers hurled themselves at a Kurdish security installation located in an abandoned hotel and several nearby checkpoints, intent on and rebar defenses. They failed, but not before they鈥檇 killed at least four sentries, who had been unable to spot the bombers聽before it was too late.

Across war-torn swathes of Iraq and Syria, particularly in the hilly regions, weather has become a military ploy in the war with ISIS. Storms often provide rare windows in which the jihadists can win decisive breaks on the ground.聽For those facing off against ISIS along a several hundred-mile-long battlefront, it鈥檚 added a level of worrying unpredictability. 鈥淲hen you鈥檙e fighting in nice weather, there are few surprises,鈥� Ebbas Mohammed, an officer in the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia told me soon after his unit had beaten back an ISIS night time strike to the south of Qamishli,聽in late 2014. 鈥淏ut when it鈥檚 raining,聽when you can鈥檛 see, anything can happen.鈥�

ISIS first displayed this environmental awareness when its fighters surged out of the desert in June 2014 and seized Mosul, Iraq鈥檚 second largest city and the country鈥檚 northern hub. Operating in convoys of Toyota pick-up trucks, its fighters launched lightning assaults on unsuspecting towns and cities, where demoralized and poorly聽led security forces mostly melted away in fright. But with the black-flag-waving extremists threatening to push even deeper into Iraq, the U.S and its regional allies stepped in, targeting the group鈥檚 vehicles with air strikes. ISIS commanders, unable now to dispatch conspicuous convoys across the semi-arid flatlands, were left with no choice but to change tactics.聽

Recognizing that heavy rain and overcast skies limit ground-spotters鈥� ability to accurately聽send聽coordinates to circling coalition bombers in the sky, jihadists have taken to attacking with greatest frequency from early December to early March, when Iraq鈥檚 usual sun and high temperatures鈥攚hich can reach 130 degrees Fahrenheit鈥攖emporarily give way to fierce downpours, occasional electrical storms,聽and overcast skies. The four most deadly attacks聽against Iraqi Kurds,聽including those at Gwer and Kirkuk,聽have since taken place in winter. Humanitarian coordinators in Iraq say that when the skies turn particularly bleak, there鈥檚 almost bound to be a battle. They call these conditions 鈥淚SIS weather.鈥�

鈥淭he first time I went to the Bashiqa area [a jihadi-occupied town near Mosul] in 2014, there was a storm. It was awful, and you just knew there was going to be an attack,鈥� says聽Tom Robinson, director of the , which analyzes aid requirements among displaced Iraqis. 鈥淎nd yes, that night the weather gave them an opportunity to crawl right up to the Pesh positions.鈥� Robinson and his colleagues, like others who work in close proximity to the frontline, are careful to factor the weather into their risk assessments when considering potential dangers in the field.

Anti-ISIS troops have, for the most part, realized their increased vulnerability during inclement weather聽and have changed their behavior as well. Rather than relax during lulls in the fighting, as is typical in sunnier months, many maintain an edgy alertness when there鈥檚 low visibility.

The approaching winter聽also presents serious obstacles for troops launching counter offensives against ISIS. Armored vehicles get stuck in boggy terrain when the rains come. Narrow routes turn into impassable mires. It鈥檚 become relatively common to see stalled or exceedingly slow-moving military convoys near the frontlines聽in December. It鈥檚 so punishing that the U.S Army, which has聽special forces on the ground in Iraq and eastern Syria, has a history of restricting operations during the nastiest conditions for fear of being unable to offer support if needed. 鈥淧atrols generally didn鈥檛 leave bases if the weather was so poor as to prevent medevac helicopters from flying,鈥� said Wayne Hsieh, a military historian at the U.S Naval Academy and former Iraq-based State Department political officer.

Taking advantage of the weather as a military tactic isn't new of course. Hundreds of campaigns and battles聽were聽determined by severe conditions鈥攆rom Napoleon鈥檚 march on Moscow in 1812, in which his massive army was badly weakened聽by the cold and ice before it聽reached the czar鈥檚 gates, to the Spanish Armada, which was largely sunk in a storm on its way to invade England in 1588. But in this聽era of advanced weaponry and hugely improved communications,聽many thought rain and sun had lost their capacity to affect wars.聽The violence in Syria and Iraq, where death tolls are soaring and new horrors appear daily, shows we remain as primeval as ever.

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