With the U.S. Food and Drug Administration鈥檚 emergency聽聽of Pfizer鈥檚 coronavirus vaccine on December 11 and the of Moderna鈥檚 聽vaccine, it seems that international trips may be a realistic thing to start thinking about again.
鈥淕enerally, the vaccine gives promise to travel. People are feeling more optimistic,鈥 says Julia Pirrung, founder and president of聽, an聽agency based in Aspen, Colorado,聽that plans custom trips. 鈥淔or people who have a longing to get to places like Europe or elsewhere, there鈥檚 definitely some hope for the latter half of 2021.鈥
The CEO of Australian airlines Qantas 聽that all international travelers boarding its flights will be required to demonstrate proof that they鈥檝e taken聽the vaccine, something no other airline has announced yet. Delta CEO Ed Bastian聽聽that the vaccine could be required for international travel, but it will likely be the government rather than the airline聽that mandates it. So far聽no countries have stated that a vaccine will be required for entry, but some infectious-disease experts reference the yellow fever vaccine, which is required or recommended for entry into聽, as an example of what could happen with COVID-19.
鈥淪imilar to the yellow fever vaccine, we may see countries that allow people with the vaccine in without meeting quarantine or testing requirements,鈥 says Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease physician and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
The International Air Transport Association, an airline trade organization, is currently at work developing a聽 that will allow passengers to share their testing results and vaccination聽information with authorities.
Of course, many questions remain about the vaccine itself, including when the general population will receive it. While frontline workers and high-risk individuals are already receiving the first doses, the average聽person likely won鈥檛 have access聽until late spring or early summer 2021. The Pfizer vaccine currently requires two doses, separated by three weeks, and Adalja says that at least full week must pass after the second dose to allow for the full benefits. Only then聽should you have sufficient immunity to travel relatively safely. But whether the vaccine provides 鈥攎eaning you can鈥檛 infect others鈥攊s still being determined. 鈥淧harmaceutical companies are in the midst of trying to understand if the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity. Can you still infect other individuals? That鈥檚 always a risk, but hopefully we鈥檒l have more information on that soon,鈥 says Adalja.
Lisa M. Lee, who is associate vice president for research and聽a professor of population health at Virginia Tech,聽as well as聽a former leader at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says there are still some聽important considerations for anyone anxious to travel. 鈥淲here are you headed? What is the risk at the place you鈥檙e going? Until the vaccine is available worldwide, there will still be a risk for transmission, so we need to ensure that we continue to engage in those public-health mitigation strategies we鈥檝e been talking about for the past ten聽months: wearing a mask, keeping distance, washing hands,鈥 she says.
Lee says that while we know that the current vaccines prevent people from getting very sick from the virus, we don鈥檛 know if that鈥檚 because they鈥檙e not getting infected at all or because it reduces symptoms, so there could still be a risk of transmission.聽
鈥淥ne of the things we鈥檝e seen from COVID-19 is that it has made worse, and also made visible, the disparities and inequities in our country,鈥 says Lee. 鈥淲e want to make sure that any policy that鈥檚 rolled out, like requiring a vaccine for travel, is equitable and doesn鈥檛 make inequities larger.鈥
While there are still risks to consider, travelers are feeling optimistic about being able to travel soon. When news of the vaccine was first reported on November 9, the flight-search platform Skyscanner saw a 9聽percent increase in bookings for economy round-trip flights, while Kayak saw a 27 percent jump in U.S. searches compared with聽the week before.
Outfitters are also seeing renewed interest in 2021 trips. According to聽, which is based in Tahoe City, California, and聽leads mountaineering trips in destinations ranging from聽the Himalayas to Ecuador, clients are starting to plan.
In 2019, Alpenglow Expeditions led 38 international trips; in 2020, it聽led just eight trips overseas before shutting down in March. 鈥淲e鈥檝e been looking month by month: Can we reopen? How can we do it safely?鈥 says Adrian Ballinger, its owner and a mountain guide. 鈥淭he phone is ringing a lot lately, and the pent-up demand for travel is strong. We have stronger than normal bookings for the second half of 2021. People are saying, 鈥業鈥檓 going to get a vaccine, and I鈥檒l travel after that.鈥 We鈥檙e not saying that鈥檚 a requirement for trips, but it certainly makes things easier.鈥
Whether or not a typical Mount Everest climbing season can take place in spring 2021, Ballinger says, is still to be determined. However, one major thing has聽changed in travel and is likely to continue well into next year: cancellation policies. Alpenglow Expeditions used to have a 90-day cancellation policy. Now,聽with the exception of a trip to Mount Everest, you can cancel a booking聽with the company up to 14 days before departure聽and receive a full refund.
鈥淭he world of international travel and guiding has changed,鈥 Ballinger says. 鈥淲e鈥檙e nimbler and more flexible now. If we want international travel to come back, we know some things need to change.鈥